Many manufacturers were slow in Q1 of 2017, especially us. It was difficult to square the booming stock market with what us groundlings were experiencing.
The " Trump Bump" was more like the Trump slump. I asked a friend who is an investment banker about the disparity. His answer was simple. He said that the money supply is finding it's level with traders and not capex.
Anyone who has lived in packaging has sensed upticks and downturns before they become mainstream news. Back in 2007, we were beginning to wonder if people needed basic cotidien staple items.
The chart bears out what was weird about Q4 of 2016. During the first week of October, things went quiet after a busy September. Informal polling indicated the reason was the uncertainty of the election. The resin companies said they felt the slump back in August. December which is usually the doldrums was strong as Decembers go.
So what does the current data portend ? Construction, junk food and staples such as rice are in good shape.
Other sectors seem to be clawing their way back to normal. Order quantities are smaller and no lead time.
It's unlikely that hedge fund managers will ever deign to do research by finding out what's going on in fly-over country.